Stop Inventory Shrinkage: How Grocers Can Solve Bottom-of-Basket Losses

Bottom-of-the-Basket (BoB) losses—when items on the bottom shelf of shopping carts or hand baskets go unpaid during checkout—pose a significant, often overlooked challenge for grocery retailers.

These unnoticed products contribute directly to inventory shrinkage, which already costs U.S. retailers over $61 billion annually, representing approximately 1.6% of total sales (source). BoB losses alone account for an estimated $2 billion per year in lost revenue across the United States (source).

Virtually every retailer struggles with this issue. According to loss prevention experts, about 10% of customers have at least one item beneath their cart during checkout, and cashiers fail to detect these items more than 6% of the time. Given an average BoB item value of around $10 (source), this translates to roughly $60,000 in annual shrink per store—or approximately $15 per checkout lane per day in lost revenue.

Importantly, not all bottom-of-basket incidents stem from intentional theft. In fact, most BoB losses—up to 90%—are honest mistakes, either the shopper genuinely forgetting an item or a cashier simply not noticing it. Retailer surveys echo this, with 80% of grocers citing cashier error as the leading cause of these losses (source).

Despite intentions, unpaid items are real losses for retailers, especially because bottom-shelf products often include high-value items like bulk goods, beverage cases, or large pet food bags. Addressing BoB shrink is essential not only for profitability but also for improving the overall customer experience.

Real-World Approaches to BoB Shrink

Pathmark Shelf Removal

In the mid-2000s, regional supermarket chain Pathmark identified BoB theft as a significant and growing problem. Initially, they tried removing the bottom shelves from carts entirely to prevent customers from hiding items. However, this approach proved counterproductive—it inconvenienced customers, negatively impacted sales, and didn't completely stop shrinkage.

ExpressLane's AI-powered Video Analytics

Today, advanced technology like ExpressLane offers a smarter solution. ExpressLane uses sophisticated AI-driven video analytics positioned strategically at checkout lanes to automatically detect items placed on the bottom of carts. When an overlooked item is identified, the system alerts cashiers in real-time, significantly reducing errors without disrupting checkout speed or customer satisfaction.

ExpressLane technology not only addresses shrinkage but enhances the shopping experience by eliminating awkward confrontations, allowing cashiers to swiftly resolve the oversight. Retailers implementing ExpressLane have experienced substantial improvements, often reducing bottom-of-basket losses by up to 90%.

Cashier Training Complements Technology

While technology like ExpressLane is highly effective, consistent cashier training remains crucial. Retailers emphasize simple yet effective habits such as regularly checking cart bottoms on every transaction. Techniques include memorable acronyms like BOB (Bottom Of Basket), reminding cashiers that scanning isn’t complete unless they've visually inspected the cart's lower tray and confirmed with customers verbally.

Loss prevention professionals highlight the importance of attentive and engaged employees. A visibly alert staff creates a natural deterrent against potential theft, reducing intentional shrink significantly.

Layered Strategies Offer the Best Defense

Bottom-of-basket shrinkage remains a notable challenge for grocers across North America, accounting for about 10% of a typical supermarket's total shrink. Yet, it is among the most solvable issues retailers face. By combining heightened employee awareness, diligent training, clear customer communication, and cutting-edge technology solutions like ExpressLane, grocers can reclaim revenue and improve the shopping experience.

Ultimately, industry experts agree—no single tactic alone is foolproof. A layered approach integrating both human diligence and technological innovation delivers the most robust and sustainable results.

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